https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019, ———. Chapter 2 showed that the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Canadian trade were unevenly distributed during the first 3 months of 2020: by March 2020, exports and imports of some goods and with some trading partners had been heavily impacted while others seemed almost untouched. Global Affairs Canada is committed to an inclusive trade agenda that supports all segments of society in taking advantage of the economic opportunities flowing from trade. Due to the long travel times between shipping a product and its arrival, the maritime (by water) mode could be expected to have been the least affected of the 5 transport categories by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Foreign representatives in Canada. While declines cannot be fully attributed to COVID-19, by March 2020, overall Canadian goods exports had dropped by 7.9% and goods imports by 8.4%, compared to March 2019. These include some manufacturing services and the large government service sectors at all levels as well as institutions offering health care services and defence services. The OCE first looked at the countries from which Canada had imported such products in the past and then it identified the countries that were the largest exporters of these products in the recent past. Canadian exports to France and Italy also posted significant growth, up by 29% and 31% in Q1 2020 (11% and 113% in March), respectively. This section looks at those Canadian industries that are vulnerable to disruptions in both international supply and international demand. So, as Canadian industries resume their activities, many will likely look again to China as an important market while others will once again be able to procure most if not all of the inputs they have traditionally sourced from China. In this way these sectors can be said to have indirect exports. Each year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) produces biannual economic forecasts for global GDP and growth for the current year and the following one. The declining terms of goods trade over the past decade implies that Canada has had to sell more exports to acquire the same quantity of imports. Like exports, imports of agriculture products increased in March as well, up by 8.2%, supported by increases in imports of fruits and nuts (14%) and meat (34%). However, individual sectors in Canada were impacted in different ways. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/methodpr855_e.pdf, ———. https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeiainf2020d1_en.pdf, World Trade Organization. Published by Tugba Sabanoglu, Nov 27, 2020 This statistic shows the trade value of exports from China to Canada from 2010 to 2019, in billion Canadian dollars. Volume is an expression of quantity, or how much of something was traded, which excludes fluctuations in price. This report highlights how Canadian innovation and resilience has allowed our businesses to continue to compete in the global marketplace and our government’s commitment to supporting trade through turbulent times. The impact of COVID-19 on goods exports for Canada, the United States and Japan was more evident in March 2020 than earlier in the first quarter, with larger year-over-year declines in March than in Q1 overall. China has become the third-largest destination for agricultural products worldwide and is expected to become the world’s largest agricultural importer by 2020. This gives our Canadian businesses access to 1.5 billion customers around the world and creates more opportunities and jobs for Canadians. While indirect exports are responsible for less than 0.1% of the industry’s output its high scores in the export reliance and export concentration components push it higher on the demand vulnerability index. The trend in trade export and trade import prices over the last decade is the opposite of the trend in trade volumes: over the first part of the decade prices for goods exports outpaced prices for goods imports, but by the second half of the decade that situation had reversed (Figure 1.4). On a YoY basis, Canadian energy imports fell 13% in March 2020, primarily due to a 20% decline in crude oil imports and an 85% reduction in electrical energy imports. The number of Canadian firms exporting goods fell in the first quarter of 2020, with much of that fall occurring in March, as many economies around the World, including Canada, implemented containment measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19. As well, the U.S. GDP growth rate could be 0.5 percentage point lower (from 1.6% to 1.1%) while China’s could be lower by as much as 1 percentage point, down from 5.0% to 4.1% (Chen and Bennett, 2019). The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which started in 2018, contributed to weak global economic conditions and trade in 2019. From a labour perspective, CUSMA secures nearly 38,000 jobs that would otherwise be lost while preserving real wage gains for Canadian workers, particularly machinery operators, manual labourers and sales workers. While trade with the United States was on average mildly affected with declines of about 6% for both exports and imports, trade with some individual states was strongly affected due to the highly integrated supply chains in some industries. This was the case for medical protective equipment during the early days of the COVID-19 crisis. Exports of Canadian goods to European countries such as Germany, France and Italy recorded significant growth in Q1 2020 and in March 2020 (Table 2.2). Canadian foreign investment performance, Chapter 2: Early impacts of COVID-19 on Canada’s international trade. Ocean freight from China is actually quite cheap. But COVID-19 was not the only cause of the decline. Many of these goods are also transported in the cargo holds of passenger aircraft, the majority of which have been grounded during the crisis. “World Economic Outlook, October 2019.” IMF Publications (2019). Despite the setback in 2019, Canadian exports to China grew on average 6.3% each year between 2010 and 2019. However, given the challenging global trade environment, Canadian trade performed well compared to global trade. For a trading nation like Canada, a global crisis such as COVID-19 has important repercussions on many of its economic sectors. The number of exporters in the goods-producing sectors such as manufacturing, mining and agriculture witnessed the smallest relative declines. Data source: Statistics Canada, Table 36-10-0014-01. Retrieved on May 7, 2020. Retrieved on May 28, 2020.Calculation of the OCE. The United States is Canada’s most important trading partner by a wide margin, due in part to the heavily integrated supply chains between the 2 countries. The early impacts of COVID-19 have been greater among SMEs (firms with less than 500 employess) than among larger firms.The number of SMEs that were exporting in March 2020 was 11% lower than in March 2019. Market-oriented economic development has enabled China to achieve this feat. By destination, the number of exporters selling goods to China, France and Italy saw the sharpest declines—down 20% to each—while the decline in the number of firms exporting to the U.S. market was less severe (down 9.1%).The number of exporters in the goods-producing sectors such as manufacturing, mining and agriculture witnessed the smallest relative declines. Trade: In January 2021, the top exports of Canada were Crude Petroleum (C$6.09B), Cars (C$3.21B), Gold (C$2.3B), Sawn Wood (C$1.23B), and Vehicle Parts (C$1.11B). For the full quarter, overall Canadian goods exports to China were down 14%, mainly due to lower exports of wood pulp, wood, automotive products, cereals, and machinery. The modernized NAFTA entered into force on July 1, 2020. Precious stones and metals also saw increased exports (12%) as gold prices strengthened, which is often the case in times of increased uncertainty. At the other end of the scale, 29 industries providing mostly services are among the industries with high international supply vulnerability and low international demand vulnerability. Universities (not shown on list) is another example (ranking 189 on the combined index) where restrictions on, or changes in behaviour of, international students could have a significant impact on services output.
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